Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 31.131540 36.990053 43.417759 50.963012 59.545716 68.972678 80.076907
2025-01-26 23.048509 30.949835 40.468710 52.644623 67.657532 85.408844 107.817400
2025-02-02 19.261869 28.366271 40.119266 56.103863 76.942981 102.833867 137.031849
2025-02-09 16.079448 25.687555 38.856345 57.718089 83.463906 116.753559 162.328556
2025-02-16 13.564926 23.355259 37.521671 58.763437 88.935506 129.296837 186.238643
2025-02-23 11.314431 20.952511 35.642754 58.637483 92.519382 139.261357 207.001404
2025-03-02 9.290641 18.510335 33.304351 57.446695 94.283774 146.593203 224.314484
2025-03-09 7.862686 16.782026 31.793334 57.236849 97.292191 155.642728 244.247693
2025-03-16 6.180318 14.274194 28.649485 54.058919 95.445636 157.412723 253.712202
2025-03-23 5.542865 13.598131 28.497007 55.662523 101.021822 170.293489 279.738130
2025-03-30 4.654522 12.248538 26.962853 54.748301 102.442949 176.885601 296.642782
2025-04-06 4.312646 11.977069 27.360517 57.179156 109.417979 192.261559 327.289684
2025-04-13 3.291380 10.059112 24.506150 53.796326 106.912392 193.424624 337.533956
2025-04-20 2.921026 9.587052 24.473041 55.641770 113.561246 209.672064 372.201236
2025-04-27 2.744327 9.556859 25.342139 59.265047 123.542811 231.789828 417.023923
2025-05-04 2.439125 9.108375 25.239035 60.953211 130.136646 248.594475 454.004318
2025-05-11 2.135513 8.579519 24.869941 62.046070 135.675961 263.846233 489.027820
2025-05-18 1.804806 7.869021 23.963162 61.914403 138.883276 275.232477 518.111608
2025-05-25 1.471725 7.034725 22.611465 60.669478 139.837792 282.709891 540.930730
2025-06-01 1.238819 6.451788 21.781527 60.450070 142.720393 293.634386 569.873478
2025-06-08 0.931450 5.460537 19.688899 57.126513 139.154111 292.832347 578.751347
2025-06-15 0.837690 5.272410 19.755565 58.803795 145.807323 310.765621 620.494724
2025-06-22 0.682114 4.748817 18.767271 57.847618 146.928058 318.563796 644.811691